Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026?
Resolves today · Total volume $6.1k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked
Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-3.5pp
2 days left, no Tier-1 reports; chair term lapsed; legal hurdles: ~1%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-1.5pp
2 days left, no firing attempt, market firm at 5%. Holding near prior.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 4.5% | 95.5% | $6.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxtryfirepowell-26may12" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →