Prediction.Markets

Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee be John Cornyn for Nov 2026?

Market consensus0%
-3.8pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 3% +2.9pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $77.9k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.9pp

TX primaries are done by May; 0% on Kalshi w/$78k implies nominees ≠ Talarico/Cornyn.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
5%+4.9pp

Market dropped from 5-6% to 0% but joint probability of both nominees should be ~5-10%; thin liquidity.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
3%+2.9pp

Talarico lacks statewide profile and donor base for Texas Dem primary; Cornyn wins GOP easily but joint probability remains tiny.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.1%100.0%$77.9k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-3.8pp

Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee be John Cornyn for Nov 2026?

Market0%
AI Oracle3%
$77.9k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxtxsencombo-26nov/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxtxsencombo-26nov" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If ALL of the following occur for Nov 2026: Dem Nominee: James Talarico, GOP Nominee: John Cornyn, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →