Prediction.Markets

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Market consensus16%
+2.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 3% -12.2pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $54.5k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
3%-12.5pp

No INARA/Hill/Tier-1 signals; real nuclear deals do not materialize in 26 days.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
4%-11.5pp

No active talks, no credible signals, 26 days left — zero chance of sudden deal.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-12.5pp

Resolution date has passed (June 1) with no deal signed; market should resolve NO imminently.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
11.5%88.5%$54.5k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves today
+2.0pp

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Market16%
AI Oracle3%vs market -12.2pp
$54.5k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxusairanagreement-27/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxusairanagreement-27" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →