Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
72%-14.5pp
2022 midterm analog: ~2.7M turnout, ballot drop-off risk, no Senate race makes 2.6M on the measure far from a lock.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
85%-1.5pp
Virginia midterm ballot measures typically draw 2.5-3M votes; redistricting is high-salience, but turnout is the key uncertainty.
Grok 4
xAI
82%-4.5pp
Virginia midterms reliably clear 2.9-3.1M ballots; 2.6M threshold is soft floor even in low-turnout 2026.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 86.5% | 13.5% | $4.9k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxusturnout-virginiaredistricting26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxusturnout-virginiaredistricting26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the total vote count for all options in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment is above 2600000, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →