Prediction.Markets

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Jun 1, 2026?

Market consensus9%
+6.3pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 8% -0.6pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $15.4k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
9%+0.1pp

94%→single digits 30d ago = formal acting handover overlaps Jun 1; 'only Maduro' fails.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
8%-0.9pp

Zero days left, zero transition signals, Maduro still fully in control.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
8%-0.9pp

Resolution requires Maduro as sole head of state; he remains in power, no transition signals. Holding near Kalshi price.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
20.5%79.5%$1.6k$55.4kopen
Kalshi
7.6%92.4%$13.8k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves today
+6.3pp

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Jun 1, 2026?

Market9%
AI Oracle8%
$15.4k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If only Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Jun 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →