Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%-1.0pp
Resolution criteria are confused (mentions Vance, Rubio, and House members), but any senior US official visiting Iran by Jul 1 is near-zero.
Grok 4
xAI
3%-0.1pp
No signal or incentive exists for Rubio (or Vance) to visit Iran in the remaining 28 days.
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-2.0pp
No House member has visited Iran in decades; zero upside, high risk, and only ~1 month remains.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 3.4% | 96.7% | $1.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
Embed
Embed this market
Live, auto-refreshing. Free with attribution.
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxvisitiran/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxvisitiran" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Marco Rubio has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →