Prediction.Markets

Will Vivek Ramaswamy receive between 55% and 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary?

Market consensus0%
-0.2pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 9% +9.1pp
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Resolves in 11mo · Total volume $468 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.8pp

He may not even be on the ballot; even if he is, landing exactly 55–60% is a tiny target.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
15%+14.8pp

Narrow 5pp band ~11 months from primary; Ramaswamy likely wins but exact share is one slice of wide distribution.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
12%+11.8pp

Narrow 55-60% band keeps probability low even if Ramaswamy is 70%+ favorite.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.3%99.8%$468$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 11mo
-0.2pp

Will Vivek Ramaswamy receive between 55% and 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary?

Market0%
AI Oracle9%vs market +9.1pp
$468 24h vol
html
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react
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Resolution criteria

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Vivek Ramaswamy in the 2026 Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary is 55% to 59.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →