Prediction.Markets

Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Market consensus1%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 1% +0.5pp
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Resolves in 1.0y · Total volume $114.5k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.5pp

Reality TV celebrity winning LA mayoral race outright in round 1 with 50%+ is extraordinarily unlikely.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
1%+0.5pp

Pratt has zero political base or infrastructure in LA; market correctly prices near-zero odds of even appearing on ballot.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.5%99.5%$114.5k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 1.0y
+0.0pp

Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Market1%
AI Oracle1%
$114.5k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxvoteprimary-mayorla26spra/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxvoteprimary-mayorla26spra" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Spencer Pratt in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →