Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
5%+0.1pp
No diplomatic signals, back-channels, or incentive shifts in 30 days; attrition lock-in continues.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-2.0pp
No direct contact since 2022; ~4 weeks left with no announced meeting or call.
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%-3.0pp
No leader contact since 2022; no live mediation track. ~5 weeks left, time decay dominates.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 5.0% | 95.0% | $453 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxzelenskyputin-29" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet (including phone calls) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →